Whatever we believe, the power of incumbency exists and, in may cases, thrives. But there is a caveat: You must perform to get reelected. Alternative? Use your power and access to circumvent, muscle, bribe, defraud and rig the elections. If you can't run on your miserable record, you mastermind a massive fraud!
Now, if the umpire is incorruptible and the voters mass for change, tough luck! In which case the opposition has less work to do. When you have credibility and the opposition is disunited, your chances brighten up and the election is yours to lose.
On an even keel, the power of persuasion carries the day. You can't unseat an incumbent otherwise.
2011 is thus a study in incumbency as it comes. Many are losing, many are gaining, based on both perception and reality - image is everything! When the chips are down, the casualties will be thrown. And it will be telling.
We wait.
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